March 2018

February was a tough month after a strong start in 2018.

The SPX lost -3.9% in February, its biggest monthly loss since February, 2016 and the first monthly decline in 11 months. However, the month close was still +7% above February's intraday low and +5% above the lowest close. A close under 2673 at the end of March would mark the first negative quarterly performance in 11 quarters. March has been a decent month in recent years, however, with 8 of the past 12 posting gains and the biggest loss being just -1.7% (the other three declines were all less than -o.65%). Better yet, April has been higher 11 of the past 12 years, although the last 4 gains were all under +1.0%.

Bull markets don't go straight up and they don't end solely on lofty valuations.
Volatility is back, people are nervous but not panicking with the more frequent declines mixed with rallies. As Yogi Berra once said, "it ain't over till it's over." 
If they rang a bell we haven't yet heard it; we are always listening and watching for signs of a top.
With earnings estimated to reach $158 up 19% and ten year note at 2.85% we believe there is more left to this rally but it may be a rocky climb.

∙Concerns over tariffs on steel and aluminum bring on fear of trade wars.

∙The new Fed Chairman Mr. Powell is untested.

∙Global conflicts abound.

∙President Trump is still subject to a Special Counsel inquiry.

∙Volatility is back.

∙The markets are still climbing a wall of worry.

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